© 1999 In the speeches EG Kochetova and other scientists clearly dissatisfied sounded old approaches to the topic. It is necessary to assess what is happening in the world of events, using new criteria, a new theoretical positions.
If you touch the works of E. G. Kochetov, which I consider as a significant contribution to science, it is necessary to refer to the monograph: “Landmarks of foreign economic activity” M, 1992, article in the journal “Society and Economy” №№ 3,4-5, 1998 and of course, the report.
It seems to me interesting that criticism of these works, which is directed against a number of negative phenomena of our time – man-made suppression of human consciousness, waste and other resources trirodnyh Reflections of the author on the formation of internationalized Boc foizvodstvennyh conveyors (cores, cycles), grohodyaschih through various national eco. Omy , led him to the idea of change in the economic boundaries of States.
In this regard, as an immediate practical proposals it is a very useful idea of creating geo-economic atlas of the world. It would be a very concrete contribution of science to the practical activities of the relevant Russian government agencies, not to mention the benefits of further scientific developments.
It is necessary to think in practical terms about E.G.Kochetova considerations regarding the change of technological processes of transnationalization processes etnoekonomicheskoy transnationalization. It seems that there is the prospect of further scientific developments in this area and apply them in practice.
not superfluous to recall in this connection that the current system of financial, economic and. as a consequence, the political relations in the world, known as globalization, is not satisfied many. Pope criticizes the system) ‘with a moral and ethical standpoint, Southeast Asian countries confer on it the blame for the crisis, which began last bastard. In Russia, many people tend to think that the right of capital to mix uncontrollably across borders turns into chaos, which often leads to chaos in the markets and causing severe damage to the national economy. In Russia, as we know, there was a massive outflow of capital, who is ing abroad in the form of deposits or in the form of real estate acquired in the 1990s.This is the most serious practical problem that must be solved in my opinion, that it should continue the logical line of reasoning from theoretical provisions necessary synthesis of ethno-national and industrial elements.
I am very close to the considerations that have been made here about that. that handling is only geopolitical categories do not correspond to the tasks put forward by the development of the world economy and international relations.
In our institute – IMEMO also drew attention to the development of new trends. Of particular importance, this work began to take on as our powers of life become apparent negative historical changes associated with the collapse of the USSR, that is, in other words, the spatial changes and events related to the failure of the reforms, that is, otherwise, progress problems and recourse essentially temporary, temporal problems.
Since it was already clear that these issues can not be solved within the framework of geopolitics, a series of theoretical studies, I koto rye brought me to the contours of a new science – metastrategii. Basics metastrategii I had formulated an isolated me in a monograph published by the Institute of World Economy and International Relations in 1997; In addition, the basic conceptual provisions were published in the journal “IMEMO” in 1997 – 1999 years.
As the fundamental theoretical bases metastrategii investigated categories of space and time in their interpretation of the public with examples of contemporary phenomena and events in the past, relating both to Russia and to other great powers.
In my opinion, for a successful outcome of research and. in particular, to achieve useful results I, that I could be put into practice, it is necessary to start from a number of obvious circumstances.
So. all this century proved rich in political and economic cataclysms, though the scale of the changes taking place spans the globe. and scientific and technological frontiers of human activity has gone beyond our planet and advancing farther into space.
However, on a personal level, woh NIL every individual is becoming more closely connected with these common giant processes, that is included in obschemorovuyu coordinate system, experiencing the impact of current events.
This is all the more important that the changes taking place are qualitative, fundamental nature, radically changing the lives of people both materially and spiritually.
Scientific, technical and economic progress makes it possible to raise the welfare of the people, and that practically carried out in developed countries. However, in many regions of the masses reduced to a miserable condition, to the physical and spiritual degradation. Some minority ethnic groups disappear million are on the verge of extinction. Gradually, the threat hanging over a number of major nations, including Russian.
Many bloody conflicts. including world wars, mass extermination of people as a very negative impact on the situation in the world and in particular countries.
By the end of this century, the rapid development of computer science and related advanced technologies unprecedentedly expanded the horizons of knowledge and created an opportunity to accelerate progress in many areas. At the same time, however, advances in this field allow to work on the psychology of people to form their mentality and adopt patterns of behavior that is essentially a “zombie” people.
Noticeably the development of new communication and information side by side with the general decline of culture, increasing spiritual impoverishment of society.
Negative changes taking place are alarming. There is a growing awareness of the need to preserve peace, to create conditions for a decent standard of people’s lives, human rights, protection of the environment.
The attainment of these and other positive purposes can be used provided that the complex and contradictory processes taking place in the world, in general, in the field of international relations and the changes within countries become more manageable, they will be brought under control. In fact, it
is the need of a positive impact on international relations and on the socio-economic development within countries.
Central is the question of the state strategy in the broad sense – as a science, and key social processes management practices.
This is especially important for Russia, because in our country there was large-scale combination of spatial and functional changes. The collapse of the Soviet Union coincided with the restructuring and radical reforms in the former Soviet Union.
Repartition, in the deepest sense of the “gap” before a common space of the former Soviet Union, and more widely – the disintegration of the former Soviet sphere of influence of the giant, coincided with the acceleration of global processes occurring is extremely uneven. The situation is particularly acute in Russia, the former Soviet Union.
events radicalism in obliges Russia to our science to explore their deepest meaning, the very mechanism of the relationship between the basic factors, as well as the nature of their impact on social development.
In his work on metastrategii studied primary factors – space and time. My aim is to discover and formulate theoretical positions, which could serve as a basis for practical conclusions and recommendations.
In particular, with regard to the categories of space, you can proceed from the understanding of space as a kind of special resources – the spatial resource and the national space can be regarded as the embodiment of wealth and power in the broadest sense – economic, defense, social and cultural.
In this (ie, spatial) sense, Russia still remains a rich and strong, that keeps it among the great powers.
Of key importance is the quality of the space, which determines the value of the latter.Quality, in turn, depends on the location and space of the so-called “domestic content”.
Human activities are, of course, plays an active role, as it can affect many of the qualitative characteristics of the space, to change them, to promote their manifestation. The internal organization of space and its arrangement, creation of infrastructure, including transport and communications, increases the space value.
As part metasgrategni as science explores many of the fundamental issues related to space. Among them, the notion of absolute space and its contents, the dynamic and static use of the space, on the characteristics of site-specific space, the spatial factor in the politics of States. Among other provisions of the concepts explores issues of so-called “mobile dispersion” of direct relevance to the rivalry between the great powers for influence in the world
Metastrategii theoretical propositions related to spatial problems, have a very specific “exit” on the current challenges of today’s Russia.
In particular, they may serve as a basis for decisions on the more successful use of wealth and power embodied in the Russian national space. So essential to the political and economic practice is the restoration of economic and other ties to the former Soviet Union, as well as the development of Russian relations with foreign countries.It is clear that in this case must take into account those new spatial characteristics, both quantitative and qualitative, are already established in the 90s.
As a result of changes that took place the whole system of Russia’s relations with foreign countries were forced to change. Changes in the external economic sphere affect the geographical and commodity structure of trade flows and volumes of financial flows, etc., etc. This gives rise to completely new problems or old become largely different meaning.
Due to the section before a single space essential for acquired Russian transit through the territory, waters and airspace of neighboring countries (most of them are former Soviet republics that were part of the USSR).
At the same time, it increased and the value of the so-called “core” areas of space. An example is the situation around the Black Sea straits. Since 1994, Turkey has sharply toughened rules of transit passage of tankers through the Bosporus and Dardanelles.This was done unilaterally in violation of the international Montreux Convention 1936. As a result, already harmed the export of Russian oil to the Black Sea direction, which is one of the most important. Moreover, in connection with the upcoming removal in this direction a large number of Caspian oil, Turkey actions take significant strategic importance in an attempt
to gain control of the most important state interests of Russia, using the “crux” of space – the Black Sea straits.
In general, the geopolitical changes in Eastern Europe, the Caucasus and Central Asia have made Russia is largely vulnerable to this kind of pressure from a number of foreign countries. After the destruction of the USSR territory of the country was reduced by about 1/4. European part
Russia has become almost intra- kontinentadnuyu. semi-isolated area. Russia was deprived of the coastal zones in the Baltic and Black seas, and others. This has caused great damage to Russia’s ability to dynamically use the space, even that remains under its sovereignty.
Transit countries (in the marine and terrestrial areas), setting skip mode and the transportation of Russian cargo on its territory, thereby regulating the flow of goods and all along its entire length, including the territory of Russia. Transit countries actually have the ability to affect the functioning of the main Russian highways connecting Russia with the outside world. In other words, economic conditions (more widely – living conditions) in the space of European Russia is largely dependent on transit countries and their policies. Necessary practical solution to this situation was, firstly, to achieve bilateral and multilateral compromises, including complex integrated political, economic arrangements, and secondly. an active search for alternative ways.
Alliance between ‘Russia and Belarus is a good example of the new policy of the new spatial conditions. Another solution to the above problems associated with the use of additional areas may be the improvement of communications in the northern areas, the laying of corridors to the south. through the Caspian and others.
It is obvious that Russia’s territorial integrity, the preservation of its national space directly dependent on an adequate strategy, based on an understanding of the economic and political characteristics of the space, its intrinsic value, including for defense, the nature of its internal laws and their interdependence with external vectors.
In other words, the maintenance of the territorial integrity, sovereignty and unity of powers suggests a reasonable balanced solutions in the field of public policy, which should be based on well-developed scientific concepts. This task is particularly difficult in times of rapid and dramatic changes. The current time is a good example.However, after the collapse of the Soviet Union and other destructive changes in recent years it has become even more clear that the exit of the country from the crisis is possible only if solving spatial problems in close conjunction with the decision of questions of general development of the country, including the problems of economic development.
Metastrategiya analyzes these problems primarily at the level of basic concepts, ie the categories of space and time, providing the basis of this conceptual approaches to practical conclusions.
In theoretical terms metastrategiya analyzes complex inherently structural characteristics of the time in its social significance. Considered under the new perspective it is widely known phenomenon – a significant “acceleration” of time in the XX century, in particular the growth rate by the end of the century (one of the consequences of which was the phenomenon of “Future Shock”). These and other important changes are temporary (temporal) character followed by the dispersion of countries over time, which seriously complicates the many challenges, including the need to maintain equal and mutually beneficial foreign relations.
However, internally abrupt changes in speed and direction of movement of temporary streams cause negative effects of a social nature, causing internal disasters, and that numerous external conflicts.
On the other hand, the acceleration time, irregular movement of temporary streams very destructive effect on the human person, for the basic relationship of people on the fundamental structure of human society, destroying family as its basic cell continuity and breaking the relationship of generations. As a result, under threat it is the process of further development of normal society.
Marked and other adverse effects associated with the deformed influence of the time factor, amplified many times and have particularly devastating effects in countries in a state of systemic crisis. That is why Russia is vital energetic state policy based on sound scientific concepts that take into account the modern role of the time factor.Accordingly, the set of problems related to the pace and the ways of socio-economic development , acquired in modern Russian special, turning life.
In theoretical terms, these issues are dealt with in connection with the deep temporal reasons. In practical terms, research and development emphasize that the country faces pressing problems of employment, social welfare, education, etc. It is clear that the solution of these problems depends on Russia’s economic recovery, and the key issue of restoring the economy is a large-scale financing the real economy, both to replenish the working capital of enterprises, so called normal recovery of the investment process.
Meanwhile, it is known that the hopes of external funding were untenable for several reasons, and internal sources were actually destroyed unsuccessful reforms. As a result, the issue of financial resources for the country out of the crisis and the gradual transition to the forward motion is the most acute.
Virtually the only reserve funds, which in its scale may be sufficient to cover the needs of the country, its economy and social sphere are the Russian capital and property located abroad, where they were, in the main, in circumvention of the law. The total amount of the capital and real estate costs are estimated at hundreds of billions of dollars. According to the latest published data, the volume of Russian retail deposits in foreign banks is estimated at 300 to 400 billion dollars., While the value of purchased real estate located abroad, reaching an additional $ 20-30 billion. Only a quick and decisive return of the funds, carried out under state control can rectify the situation in Russia. Clear,
In general, conducted at our institute studies show that an important condition for success in overcoming the difficulties faced by Russia, is precisely their complete solution, since the main ones relate to both the spatial and functional problems of development, that is, essentially are temporal in nature . Theoretical work permit to enter the solution to many of the specific problems.
IMEMO experience shows that certain ideas proposed by scientists, find understanding in the government and gradually implemented. This, in particular, concerns and recommendations as part of our metastrategii. You can refer to some examples. We have made proposals for a reorientation in a sense of our policy on the Pacific region, the need to intensify the use of (new forms of) northern spaces of the country, a major adjustment of the state policy in the south, the Caspian Basin and Central Asia.
Russian adoption in APEC and several other progress achieved by our country can be considered as interim positive results on the way to an appropriate long-term goal.
Numerous studies, papers and monographs on the need for a radical change of attitude towards the Russian Arctic, awareness of the significance of life for us this enormous reserve space gradually began to yield its first signs of understanding on the part of federal and regional authorities. After persistent long campaign about the urgent need to improve communication of the Russian Federation of the North with the rest of the country and with foreign countries, using powerful natural trunk – the Northern Sea Route, there were governmental decisions. The Russian government issued a decree in 1237 from October 23, 1998 “On the development of bauxite deposits of the Middle Timan in the Komi Republic and the development of the aluminum complex of the Urals.” There is reason to believe that the most important decision of the group started the problems, including the development of ground-based communications that will yield the Urals to the Northern Sea Route. The overall goal is to create opportunities for the transport timber exports, metal ores, fertilizers, petroleum products. In this case it provides not only a connection to land routes to Arkhangelsk, but also the construction of a new port in the ice-water area at the mouth of the river Indigo.
Of no less importance it attaches IMEMO solving the complex problems of the order on the other, heading south. We are talking about the Caspian region and Central Asia. Here the dangerous situation of long-term order. Our view, in particular, lies in the fact that Russia’s space interests are more important in this region than the interests of the resource. We believe that only a comprehensive solution of spatial problems and issues of general development of these regions will meet the vital interests of Russia. We hope that there will listen to our opinion.
In summary it would be right to conclude that, despite all the difficulties, there is no reason to profess disbelief in the ability of our Russian social science, in particular, the scientific strategy to influence the policy of the government in a positive direction.However, the difficulties, of course, is, and scientists involved in issues related to state owned development strategy, should intensify their efforts to help government agencies, the leadership of our country to withdraw Russia from the crisis and overcome the difficulties.